If you are asking whether interest rates will go up again in November 2026, you are really asking two separate questions: what the Reserve Bank of Australia is likely to do at its next meeting, and what that would cost you if it happens. This piece covers the first in plain language and the second with numbers you can run on your own loan. Nothing here is a prediction of the November outcome. The board decides on the day, and we do not forecast rates.
As at mid-October 2026, the cash rate target is 4.60 per cent, effective 30 September 2026. The Monetary Policy Board lifted it by 25 basis points on 29 September in a unanimous decision, the fourth hike of 2026 after moves in February, March and May. The RBA's cash rate overview lists the next update at 2:30pm on 3 November 2026.
What the board has already told us
The September statement said inflation remains elevated, that some upside risks flagged in August are materialising, and that growth in aggregate demand needs to remain subdued for a period to reduce capacity pressures and bring inflation back to target. It also repeated the line that has mattered for borrowers all year: the board will do what it considers necessary, including increasing the cash rate target further if needed.
The minutes of the 28-29 September meeting, published on 13 October, flesh out why members thought another 25 basis points was warranted even as housing prices were falling. Recent data suggested growth and inflation in Australia had been higher than expected at the previous meeting. Members judged that financial conditions remained somewhat restrictive, but the extent of that restriction was uncertain. On domestic capacity, the staff's preliminary assessment was that the stronger-than-expected underlying inflation in July was more likely to reflect greater domestic capacity pressures than unexpectedly strong pass-through from Middle East-related cost increases. Members also discussed whether the unemployment rate consistent with the inflation target might be higher than previously assessed, which would imply excess demand in the economy is greater than earlier thought. That is a hawkish read, not a commitment to hike again.
The two dates that frame November
Wednesday 28 October 2026 is when the Australian Bureau of Statistics releases the September quarter consumer price index. That is the last major inflation print before the board meets. The trimmed mean, the measure the Reserve Bank watches most closely, held at 3.6 per cent year-ended in August on the monthly indicator, still above the 2 to 3 per cent target band. The quarterly release will show whether underlying inflation is easing, stuck, or reaccelerating into year-end.
Monday 3 November 2026 at 2:30pm (Sydney time) is the decision itself, with the usual media release and Governor press conference. The November meeting also coincides with the Statement on Monetary Policy, so the board will publish refreshed forecasts alongside the rate call. Markets and bank economists will shift their views as the CPI lands; treat any single "probability" you see quoted before 28 October as a snapshot, not a fact.
Hold, hike, or pause: three scenarios, not a forecast
A hold at 4.60 per cent is plausible if the September quarter trimmed mean comes in soft enough for the board to judge that financial conditions are already doing enough work, especially with housing credit slowing and values falling in most capitals. A further 25 basis point hike to 4.85 per cent is plausible if the CPI disappoints on the upside or if the board concludes capacity pressures are still too strong relative to the inflation target. Some major bank economists have published either view; others sit in between. Their published forecasts are opinions, not outcomes.
A cut in November is not what the September statement or minutes pointed toward, but central banks have surprised before when data shift. The honest borrower-facing answer is that the distribution of outcomes is still skewed toward hold or hike rather than ease, without naming odds we cannot verify on the day this article was written.
What another 25 basis points would cost
If the board did hike again and lenders passed on the full move, the monthly repayment on a 30-year principal-and-interest loan would rise by roughly the same order of magnitude as the September increase. On a $600,000 loan, a 0.25 percentage point rise in the variable rate is often around $95 to $100 a month, depending on the remaining term and the lender's rate. Run your own balance on the home loan repayment calculator linked below rather than assuming a generic figure.
Borrowing power would tighten again too. Lenders assess serviceability at your rate plus APRA's 3 percentage point buffer, so a higher policy rate flows into a higher assessment rate even if your income is unchanged.
What to do before 28 October
- Model your budget at 4.60 per cent and at 4.85 per cent. If only the higher number works, you already know where the stress sits.
- Read your lender's notice from the September pass-through and confirm the date your repayment changed. If you have not had one yet, check online banking and your email.
- Ring retention before you refinance. A 0.25 to 0.30 percentage point discount on a back-book rate is common for borrowers who ask; it costs nothing to try.
- Do not panic-fix solely because November might bring another hike. Fixed rates already embed market expectations. Fix if repayment certainty matters, not because a headline told you to.
- If you are buying, ask whether your pre-approval still holds at the post-September assessment rate.
Disclosure: Licensed brokers who meet our criteria pay Your Finance Guide a partnership fee to receive enquiries from this site. The fee is paid by the broker, not by you, and is not added to your loan. Brokers are usually also paid a commission by the lender when a loan settles. This article is general information only. It is not personal financial advice and does not take your objectives, financial situation or needs into account. Consider whether it is appropriate for you and read the relevant product disclosure statement before acting. RBA and ABS figures are as published by those agencies; market and bank economist views change frequently.