The Reserve Bank of Australia raised the cash rate target by 25 basis points to 4.60 per cent at its 28 to 29 September 2026 meeting, effective 30 September. It was the fourth hike of 2026, after February, March and May, and followed holds at 4.35 per cent in June and August. The decision was unanimous. The Board said inflation is still too high, that some upside risks flagged in August have materialised, and that it will increase the cash rate further if needed.
The September board minutes, published 13 October, show members judged that acting promptly would better balance inflation and employment objectives, that waiting for more confirmation could be costly, and that the existing cash rate may no longer be restrictive enough. Governor Michele Bullock's post-meeting press conference struck a somewhat more patient tone, which is why economist calls for November are now split. Two data releases sit between now and the next decision: September quarter CPI on 28 October 2026, and the RBA announcement at 2:30pm on 3 November 2026. For a balanced read of hold versus hike scenarios, see our November preview. We do not state any one forecast as certain.
Where things stand in October 2026
- Cash rate: 4.60 per cent (raised 29 September 2026, unanimous).
- Policy tone: the September statement and minutes keep further tightening on the table; the Board will be attentive to CPI and activity data.
- Next CPI: September quarter CPI, including trimmed mean, released 28 October 2026 (ABS).
- Next RBA meeting: 3 November 2026 (decision at 2:30pm AEDT).
- Variable mortgage pass-through: all four major banks passed the September hike through in full to variable home loans from 9 October 2026 (Westpac's lowest advertised variable rate moved from 5.99 to 6.24 per cent; Commonwealth Bank's lowest is 6.34 per cent, per industry reporting at the time).
Big four economist forecasts (published calls)
The table below records each major bank's published cash rate view as at mid October 2026. These are the banks' economist teams, not mortgage pricing. Calls can change when new CPI or labour market data land.
| Bank | 3 November 2026 meeting | Peak / end-2026 cash rate (their view) | When they expect cuts to start | Source date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Westpac | 25bp hike expected (base case) | 4.85% | From August 2027 (cutting phase) | 15 Oct 2026 (Market Outlook) |
| ANZ Research | 25bp hike more likely than not | 4.85% at end-2026 | Reductions from late 2027, cash rate toward 4.35% in 2028 | 2 Oct 2026 (Macro Weekly) |
| Commonwealth Bank | Hold (base case); November hike a clear risk | 4.60% peak | 50bp of cuts in 2027: August then November | 13 Oct 2026 (minutes read); 21 Sep 2026 (2027 cuts) |
| NAB | Hold (base case); further tightening a risk | 4.60% peak | Core inflation in target band by end-2027 (no dated cut call in the 30 Sep note) | 30 Sep 2026 (RBA Watch) |
The split is clean: Westpac and ANZ Research both expect another 25 basis point move in November, which would take the cash rate to 4.85 per cent. Commonwealth Bank and NAB expect policy to pause at 4.60 per cent, but Commonwealth Bank's Belinda Allen said on 13 October that November is "very much live" and that markets were pricing about a 30 per cent chance of a November hike when the bank published its minutes analysis. NAB's 30 September RBA Watch said the Board's strategy of bringing inflation down while preserving labour market gains points to a more incremental approach, with the cash rate on hold from there but further tightening still possible if data surprise to the upside.
On the cutting side, none of the four is calling for relief in 2026. Commonwealth Bank pushed its first expected cut to August 2027 (from an earlier May timing), with a second cut in November 2027, for 50 basis points of easing in total. Westpac's October interest rate table shows the cash rate at 4.85 per cent through to mid 2027 before easing toward 3.85 per cent by late 2028. ANZ Research's published path has 4.85 per cent through much of 2027 before two reductions toward 4.35 per cent. Treat any end-2027 number as a forecast, not a promise: the RBA itself has stressed that the outlook depends on inflation, the Middle East conflict, energy prices, and domestic capacity pressures.
What wholesale markets are pricing
Bank economist forecasts are one input; overnight index swaps and bond markets are another. Commonwealth Bank noted that markets were pricing about a 30 per cent probability of a November hike when it published its September minutes commentary on 13 October 2026, down from heavier hike pricing around the September meeting. NAB's 9 October "What to Watch" briefing described markets at roughly a 50 per cent chance of a hike by the end of 2026, while NAB's own economists expected a hold from the September level.
Fixed home loan rates follow the wholesale curve more than the spot cash rate. In the week after the 29 September decision, industry reporting counted 17 lenders lifting fixed rates by an average of 0.24 percentage points as the expected policy path repriced. If markets shift toward a higher terminal rate, fixed rates can rise even while variable rates sit unchanged after a hold.
What this means for variable mortgage rates
Variable rates have tracked the 2026 hiking cycle with close to full pass-through. After the September move, the majors lifted standard variable pricing from 9 October 2026. If the RBA holds in November, variable rates for existing customers are unlikely to move unless your lender reprices for other reasons. If the Board hikes to 4.85 per cent, history suggests major banks would pass most or all of a 25 basis point move through within a couple of weeks, though each lender sets its own card.
The front-book versus back-book gap remains a structural issue: lenders often advertise sharper rates for new borrowers than they leave on existing variable books. If you have not had a rate review in 18 months, ask your lender or a broker what retention discount is available before you refinance. See variable versus fixed in 2026 for how the choice interacts with the rate path.
What this means for fixed mortgage rates
Fixed rates are set off BBSW at the relevant tenor plus funding and credit margins. They embed the market's guess at average cash rates over the fixed term, so they moved up after September even for borrowers whose variable rate had not yet changed. Canstar and industry press reported widespread fixed repricing in September and immediately after the September RBA decision, with some one-year fixed offers at the majors above 6.4 per cent by late September.
Fixing now locks in today's wholesale view. If Westpac and ANZ Research are right about a November hike, that view is already partly in fixed pricing; if Commonwealth Bank and NAB are right about a pause at 4.60 per cent, some fixed tiers could stabilise or ease slightly once CPI is digested. Neither outcome is knowable in advance, which is why we treat fixing as a certainty decision rather than a bet on the Board.
What borrowers can do before 3 November
- Stress-test repayments: model your loan at the current variable rate and at +0.25 percentage points, in case the cash rate moves to 4.85 per cent. The home loan repayment calculator turns that into dollars per month.
- Watch 28 October CPI: trimmed mean inflation for the September quarter is the print the Board will have in hand for November. Commonwealth Bank expects trimmed mean to rise 1.0 per cent over the quarter; Westpac anticipates quarterly outcomes around 0.9 per cent in the second half of 2026.
- Do not wait on APRA for a refinance: the serviceability buffer remains 3 percentage points above your assessed rate. Refinance maths depend on your rate gap and switching costs, not on the next RBA meeting alone.
- First home buyers: scheme eligibility and purchase timing usually matter more than guessing one meeting. Run borrowing capacity at today's rates, then layer guarantees and concessions that fit your state.
What could change these forecasts
- September quarter CPI (28 October): a trimmed mean print at or above 1.0 per cent quarter on quarter would strengthen the case for a November hike in Westpac and ANZ Research's frameworks and keep Commonwealth Bank's "live" risk elevated.
- Labour market and spending: the Board is trying to preserve employment gains while lowering inflation. Material weakness in hiring or household spending could make another hike harder to justify even if CPI is firm.
- Energy and the Middle East: the September statement cited higher global energy prices and pass-through to domestic prices. A sustained fall in oil prices could ease the inflation impulse the Board is responding to.
- RBA communication: speeches and the November Statement on Monetary Policy (if published with the meeting) can shift market pricing and fixed rates without a cash rate change.
Frequently asked questions
What is the current RBA cash rate?
The Reserve Bank of Australia cash rate target is 4.60 per cent, effective 30 September 2026. The Monetary Policy Board lifted it by 25 basis points at its 28 to 29 September meeting in a unanimous decision, the fourth hike of 2026 after moves in February, March and May. The Board held at 4.35 per cent in June and August. The next decision is announced at 2:30pm AEDT on 3 November 2026, after September quarter CPI on 28 October.
What are the big four banks forecasting for the November 2026 RBA meeting?
As at mid October 2026 the majors are split. Westpac and ANZ Research both expect a further 25 basis point hike on 3 November, taking the cash rate to 4.85 per cent. Commonwealth Bank and NAB expect the rate to stay at 4.60 per cent as their base case, but both flag a November hike as a live risk if September quarter CPI is strong. None of the four is forecasting a cut before 2027.
When do economists expect the first RBA rate cut?
Published house forecasts as at October 2026 point to cuts in 2027, not 2026. Commonwealth Bank expects 50 basis points of easing in 2027, with the first cut in August and a second in November. Westpac pencils in the start of a cutting phase from August 2027. ANZ Research expects the cash rate to remain at 4.85 per cent through much of 2027 before reductions in late 2027 and 2028. NAB expects core inflation back in the target band by the end of 2027 with the cash rate peaking at 4.60 per cent.
Do fixed mortgage rates follow the RBA cash rate?
No. Fixed mortgage rates are priced off the wholesale Bank-Bill Swap (BBSW) curve, which prices the market's expectation of future cash rate moves over the fixed term. Fixed rates can move materially even when the cash rate is unchanged, because the wholesale market is constantly reprising the expected path.
Should I fix my home loan rate now in late 2026?
Fix for repayment certainty, not as a directional bet on the next RBA move. By the time a forecast of further hikes is widely discussed, much of that expectation is usually already in fixed rates. Fixing makes sense if predictable repayments matter more than the optionality to break and refinance. It does not make sense as a bet on further hikes alone.
What is the difference between the cash rate and the mortgage rate?
The cash rate is the RBA-set policy rate that authorised deposit-taking institutions earn on overnight balances held at the Reserve Bank. The variable mortgage rate is set by each lender at their discretion, based on their cost of funds, risk-based capital requirements, and competitive positioning. Pass-through from a cash rate change to variable home loan rates is typically close to one-for-one but not always in the same week as the RBA decision.
Where can I follow the RBA cash rate decisions?
The RBA publishes the meeting schedule, decision announcements, and the Statement on Monetary Policy on its website at rba.gov.au. Board minutes are published two weeks after each meeting. We publish a preview and response piece on the news index for major RBA decisions, including the November 2026 preview ahead of the 28 October CPI release.