The Weekly Brief: five things that changed in Australian finance (28 September 2026)

Housekeeping first. The Weekly Brief went quiet after 27 July and the news did not wait. This catch-up edition covers the seven weeks from mid-August to today in five items, and the normal brief is back on Friday 2 October. Six of these stories have their own full articles on the site today.

1. Rates turned, and the RBA decides tomorrow

The Reserve Bank announces its decision at 2:30pm AEST on Tuesday 29 September, and markets put the odds of a hike from 4.35 to 4.60 per cent at about 90 per cent. All four major banks forecast one. On 18 September Governor Michele Bullock told the House Economics Committee that "some of these upside risks to inflation appear to be materialising". The lenders did not wait: Australian Broker counts 18 that lifted at least one fixed rate in September. CBA went up by as much as 0.48 of a point, and ANZ's 6.49 per cent for one and two years is now the cheapest big four fixed rate.

Read-through: the cheap fixed rates of winter are gone, whatever the board does tomorrow. If the hike comes and is passed on in full, a $600,000 loan over 30 years moving from 6.25 to 6.50 per cent costs about $98 more a month (illustrative). Our RBA September preview costs both outcomes and asks whether fixing now makes sense.

2. Home values fell for a fifth straight month, and spring has stalled

Cotality's August index had national values down 0.9 per cent, the fifth monthly fall in a row and 3.6 per cent below the March peak. Sydney fell 1.4 per cent and is 7.1 per cent below its February peak. Perth, the last boom city, fell 0.8 per cent. Only Darwin rose. Spring has not helped. Capital city stock is up 24 per cent on a year ago, and auctions in the week to 20 September cleared 49.1 per cent against 71.6 per cent a year earlier.

Read-through: buyers have time and bargaining power for the first time since 2023, but valuations can come in under contract price in a falling market. Our piece on spring 2026 for first home buyers works through both sides. Cotality's September index is expected on Thursday 1 October.

3. Jobs softened, real wages went backwards, and inflation lands Wednesday

The ABS put unemployment at 4.5 per cent in July and 4.6 per cent in August, the highest since late 2021, and every one of August's 39,500 new jobs was part time. Wages grew 3.2 per cent in the year to the June quarter, while the latest CPI showed prices up 3.5 per cent in the year to July. Real wages are falling. On 22 September Bullock said unemployment between 4.5 and 5 per cent would probably take enough heat out of the economy, so do not expect the RBA to rescue a softer job market. The August CPI lands at 11:30am AEST Wednesday; with the fuel excise cut gone, Westpac expects headline inflation to rise to about 4.0 per cent.

Read-through: for most borrowers the bigger risk now is income, not the rate. A 0.25 point rise is manageable on a steady job; it is not if your hours get cut. Build your buffer while the pay is still coming in.

4. Regulators found fraud, arrears rose, and brokers took a record share

On 19 August AUSTRAC published Operation Claw, a Fintel Alliance review of home loan data from 10 major banks that found potentially hundreds of millions of dollars in suspected mortgage fraud, built on inflated incomes and fake business activity, with the same brokers, accountants and law firms turning up again and again. CBA's home loan arrears rose to 0.73 per cent and personal loan arrears to 1.72 per cent, and Roy Morgan classes 32.5 per cent of mortgage holders as at risk of stress, the most since 2008. Brokers, meanwhile, wrote a record 81.6 per cent of new home loans in the June quarter, even as CBA told investors that loans through its own channels are 20 to 30 per cent more profitable.

Read-through: expect harder income checks, especially if you are self-employed, so make sure your tax returns, BAS and bank statements tell the same story before you apply; our Operation Claw piece covers what changes. If repayments are already tight, read our updated guide to mortgage hardship before you miss a payment. Our brokers piece lists the questions to ask whichever door you walk through, ours included.

5. Three money rules changed: card surcharges, the asset write-off and EV leases

From Thursday 1 October a business can no longer surcharge you for paying by eftpos, Visa or Mastercard, with American Express and UnionPay following suit and PayPal on 5 October. It is a card network rule, not a law, and the cost will mostly move into prices rather than disappear. The $20,000 instant asset write-off is now permanent law for businesses turning over under $10 million, alongside a two-year loss carry-back (assent 26 August). For EV drivers, Treasury's draft law keeps the full FBT exemption for commitments made before 1 April 2027, then limits it to cars of $75,000 or less until 31 March 2029, after which a 25 per cent discount applies. The bill has not passed.

Read-through: heavy points earners may see card rewards trimmed; our card surcharge ban explainer has the detail. Buying equipment? Read our updated instant asset write-off piece first. Anyone weighing a novated lease should read our EV FBT piece first: for most EVs under $75,000 the date that matters is March 2029, not April 2027.

What to do this week

1. Before 2:30pm Tuesday, find your current rate and call your lender to ask for a better one. A retention discount costs nothing and pays a broker nothing.
2. Do not fix just because the headlines are loud. Fixed rates already assume at least one hike, so fix, or split, only if a second rise would genuinely break your budget.
3. If you are buying this spring, get pre-approval first and ask for a finance clause: in this market, vendors are accepting them again.
4. If money is already tight, call your lender's hardship team, or the free National Debt Helpline on 1800 007 007, before you miss a payment, not after.

Disclosure: Your Finance Guide works in conjunction with ALG Australian Lending Group (ACL 505575). Licensed brokers who meet our criteria pay Your Finance Guide a partnership fee to receive enquiries from this site. The fee is paid by the broker, not by you, and is not added to your loan. Brokers are usually also paid a commission by the lender when a loan settles. Two of the steps above, asking your own lender for a retention rate and calling the National Debt Helpline, pay a broker nothing. Figures are as published by the named sources up to 28 September 2026. The RBA's 29 September decision and the August CPI had not been released at the time of writing. The repayment figure is an illustrative calculation, not a quote. This is general information, not personal advice.