The Cotality (formerly CoreLogic) Home Value Index for April 2026 came in at +0.3 per cent across the combined capitals, the weakest monthly print since mid-2025 and roughly half the +0.6 per cent recorded in March. The annual figure is still high at 9.6 per cent for the combined capitals and 11.1 per cent for the combined regions, but the monthly trend is now clearly softening as the RBA rate cycle bites.
The headline number hides a two-speed story. Sydney values fell 0.6 per cent over the month, Melbourne fell 0.6 per cent, while Perth rose 2.1 per cent, Adelaide 1.2 per cent and Brisbane 1.1 per cent. The combined-capital median is now $1,014,401, up from roughly $925,000 a year ago.
Sydney and Melbourne: five months in
Both of the two largest markets are now five months into what Cotality is calling "the early phase of value decline". Listings in Sydney are up materially year-on-year, vendor discounting has lifted to a 3.1 per cent median across the combined capitals, and buyer demand has thinned as serviceability has tightened with the May RBA hike to 4.35 per cent.
For sellers in the two largest cities, the practical implication is straightforward: the easy on-market premium of 2024 and early 2025 is gone. Pricing strategy is back to mattering. For buyers, particularly first home buyers who have been priced out of those two markets, the next six to nine months are likely to be the most negotiable window of the decade.
Perth, Brisbane, Adelaide still grinding higher
The mid-sized capitals are still rising, supported by low inventory levels. Perth at +2.1 per cent month-on-month is the standout, with annual growth that puts every other capital to shame. Brisbane and Adelaide are both adding around 1.1-1.2 per cent a month. SA1-level listings remain at multi-year lows in all three cities, which is structurally holding prices up even as buyer demand cools.
What it changes for borrowers
For first home buyers in Sydney and Melbourne, falling values combined with the First Home Guarantee (which had its place cap removed from October 2025) materially improve the maths on entering the market. A 5 per cent deposit on a $900,000 property is now $45,000 with no LMI under FHG, where the same purchase 12 months ago would have meant a higher entry price plus LMI on a sub-20 per cent deposit.
For existing owners considering refinancing, soft prices mean a tighter LVR position than 12 months ago and a smaller chance of unlocking equity. If you bought between mid-2024 and late 2025 in Sydney or Melbourne, your current valuation may be flat or down despite headline annual growth nationally.
Investors weighing a purchase now need to factor in the 12 May 2026 Budget changes: negative gearing for established residential property is being limited to new builds from 1 July 2027. Established property purchased after 7:30pm AEST on Budget night is on track to lose negative gearing entitlements at settlement. We covered the detail in our budget negative gearing piece on the news index.
Auction clearance: still functional, no panic
Weighted preliminary clearance rates across the combined capitals have moved into the high 50s to low 60s on volumes that are still strong, indicating that there is no liquidity break. Buyers are still showing up; they are just less willing to chase. That is consistent with what an early-stage softening looks like, not a crash.
What to watch in the May data
- Whether the Sydney and Melbourne monthly declines deepen below -0.5 per cent or stabilise. The May print lands in early June.
- Whether Perth holds above +1 per cent or shows a first sign of decelerating.
- Listings momentum: are stock levels building (pricing pressure) or staying tight (price support)?
- Vendor discounting trend across the combined capitals: a move above 4 per cent would be a clearer downturn signal.